derneutrale

Business Development

How do you do forecasting?

This time, I have a little more basic question: How do you do forecasting, especially considering potential NRR increases?

Right now, we do it only based on the net new deals in our CRM by having appropriate deal amounts and close dates. Maybe, there's a better way on how to do it?

Maybe some nice tools to use?

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18 comments

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poweredbycaffeine

WR Lieutenant

☕️

This is anything but basic.

derneutrale

Opinionated

Business Development

I’m surprised tbh 😄 doesn’t feel too crazy, we’re already quite accurate today when it comes to new business.
However, we don’t predict NRR increases.
Maybe it feels easy as we’re still a smaller team, so less bullshitting and just reporting real, rather conservative numbers

poweredbycaffeine

WR Lieutenant

☕️

Expansion is a lot like being at the roulette table. Bet big, lose big. Bet small, a waste of time.

oldcloser

Arsonist

💀

0, 00

Fuk

Phillip_J_Fry

Opinionated

Director of Revenue

Besides $ value and close date, there should be homestretch stages to signify how close it is. Ours represent one where the client has pricing and has acknowledge it's within budget, a stage that reflects all sign-offs have been acquired, and one that the customer has confirmed the PO will be submitted by X date. It gives management a more granular level of deal insight to know how close the deal REALLY is.

We also have 'back fill' deals. If two of my five forecasted deals falls through, I need some thing to back up that $ value that I projected, where it could have a chance to come in this quarter if I push hard enough. It's not perfect, but I can usually finish a quarter within 10-15% of my forecasted number.

derneutrale

Opinionated

Business Development

Thanks! Yes, we have also implemented those probability stages, but don’t monitor NRR increase through extra deals, so the projection is always too low

Diablo

Politicker

Sr. AE

I used Clari which is a good tool that gives nudge if something has been changed or slipped.

derneutrale

Opinionated

Business Development

Thanks! Any idea how much it costs?

Justatitle

Big Shot

Account Executive

well, to do this accurately the best way I have seen is to look at your sales stages look at average days to close, look at percentages that close from each stage and forecast off that.

derneutrale

Opinionated

Business Development

Sounds great thanks! Already implemented that

Sunbunny31

Politicker

Sr Sales Executive 🐰

Appropriate deal sizes + stage = likelihood to close by %. The higher the stage/closer to close, the higher the amount to forecast. Our SFDC is set up to capture that; most CRMs can be set to have a % at each stage that will help with the numbers.

derneutrale

Opinionated

Business Development

Thanks! That’s how we currently do it, I just wanted to know if there’s optimization potential. Because as of right now, we don’t create deals for e.g. inflation adjustments on a deal, therefore the total ARR projection is inaccurate as we increase the value of existing deals as well.

Sunbunny31

Politicker

Sr Sales Executive 🐰

There's always this:

jefe

Arsonist

🍁

I was thinking this

derneutrale

Opinionated

Business Development

Fair ;)

Kosta_Konfucius

Politicker

ERP Sales

Include close % or win chance % and that's all I have seen

Armageddon

Opinionated

Enterprise Account Executive

We use Clari, it works well

derneutrale

Opinionated

Business Development

Thanks!

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derneutrale

How do you do forecasting?

18 comments

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