What's Going to Happen to San Francisco?

No details necessary. I just walked from Harrison to 5th and Mission and saw what I need to see to get worried about this territory.


I guess my concern is about the economic viability of running this territory long term. What's going to happen here?


From the city streets you can see:

  • Foot traffic way down from pre-COVID days. Many retail businesses look closed or open and empty. Is there enough foot traffic to keep up with rent and stay alive for the places still open? Will this spiral?
  • New buildings propped up on what I assume is debt, with an occupancy rate down 30-40% from pre-COVID. What's going to happen to the builders of these buildings? To the companies stuck in leases? Are they going to bail as soon as their lease expires?
  • Are companies going to move from the Bay Area to Texas, Washington, or elsewhere to follow the trend that their employees have followed? Are they going to stay in CA and move to Sacramento/San Jose?

I have a lot of questions about the long term viability of repping this geo, and am starting to transition career to move back into a West, National or Global role. Anyone else thinking along the same lines, or is this overthinking and companies will remain?

๐Ÿ—บ Territory
29
Fenderbaum
Politicker
17
Retired Choirboy๐Ÿช•
Foot traffic is down due to all the feces and needles littering the streets. Here's a poop map.
CuriousFox
WR Officer
6
๐ŸฆŠ
Danger and lack of affordable housing.
punishedlad
Tycoon
3
Business Development Team Lead
Thanks to NIMBY building codes and terrible policy :)
Sunbunny31
Politicker
4
Sr Sales Executive ๐Ÿฐ
Who downvoted you? You're not wrong.
punishedlad
Tycoon
3
Business Development Team Lead
Idk, probably a NIMBY.
Sunbunny31
Politicker
1
Sr Sales Executive ๐Ÿฐ
LOL. I'm a fan of visiting cities - I'll tell you, I have yet to see one that didn't have some warts somewhere.
coletrain
Politicker
2
Account Executive
Complete outside perspective on the Bay Area and California, SF can be fine but needs to readjust to be affordable which includes YIMBY building codes/policies.

Many cities need to be better at this and California's as a whole are the poster child for NIMBYism causing issues IMO. It seems the state govt is starting to get it thankfully.
Fenderbaum
Politicker
1
Retired Choirboy๐Ÿช•
I would have to respectfully disagree on the state government starting to get it. Remember, Pelosi's nephew Newsom is from the Bay Area. The state government is a total train wreck, and it's all by design.
Sunbunny31
Politicker
0
Sr Sales Executive ๐Ÿฐ
Oh, so many things I could say about the state of CA doing just fine from a business perspective. 5th largest economy isn't really anything to sneeze at. That said, I really, really don't want to get into politics here.
Fenderbaum
Politicker
0
Retired Choirboy๐Ÿช•
I hear ya, but it's relevant to the post.
Pepe
Opinionated
6
Enterprise Account Executive
Going down the shitter unless we can get someone tough on crime. Westfield is going to look like a ghost town here shortly enough.

Not optimistic London will grow a pair.
Sunbunny31
Politicker
5
Sr Sales Executive ๐Ÿฐ
SF has areas that have *always* looked like garbage (source: used to commute into the city daily to go to SoMa for work).

That said, a lot of what is happening is that the office buildings simply don't have the occupancy that they once had. Remote is a way of life for a LOT of the companies in the area. The companies themselves are fine, but the employees are all over the place. Since many of them didn't live in SF in the first place, they're not out and about walking around.

It's a high COL city, yes, with a homelessness and drug problem like many many other cities in temperate zones. Lack of housing (in general) has contributed. The major businesses themselves are fine; the small businesses that served office workers are struggling, but that too is nothing new, because the cost to rent business space for those SMBs has also been extremely high over the years and there's been difficulty for business owners to stay open when rents keep rising.
saasesforthemaases
Tycoon
4
Account Manager, West
Yeah, sorry. Edit: I sell a security tool that is SaaS in nature. ICP is 7500+ employees, highly regulated financial, healthcare, and some tech companies.
oldcloser
Arsonist
5
๐Ÿ’€
Just gutting it out here but the concern seems a little bit alarmist. Thereโ€™s always been a huge division between the haves and the have nots in that town.
Sunbunny31
Politicker
2
Sr Sales Executive ๐Ÿฐ
There are definitely problems, but it's not even close to being one of the worst cities to be in.
braintank
Politicker
3
Enterprise Account Executive
What are you selling?
braintank
Politicker
3
Enterprise Account Executive
Also, companies aren't going to necessarily relocate becuase crime is bad in the mission.

Benioff can't move that fucking tower.
saasesforthemaases
Tycoon
3
Account Manager, West
Fair. Man that's a big ass tower.
HVACexpert
Politicker
3
sales engineer
I mean, what do you sell? What kind of customers do you call in? Is SF your only market?
saasesforthemaases
Tycoon
3
Account Manager, West
SF and East Bay is my territory. I sell a SaaS cybersecurity product. 7500+, highly regulated healthcare, financial, and some tech companies.
HVACexpert
Politicker
3
sales engineer
So the good news is cybersecurity is important for everyone. Even when companies make layoffs or donโ€™t perform well, cybersecurity is something people will still spend money on. So itโ€™s a little recession proof.

I would work on an offering for smaller companies as well. Will help expand your customer base.
Pachacuti
Politicker
3
They call me Daddy, Sales Daddy
SF would be among the last cities on my list i which to start a business. So many strikes against it.

SF = nice place to visit (for a day) but nothing more than that.
WheelofCheese
Opinionated
3
Sales Executive
While Iโ€™ve never focused on this territory (my territory has spanned the entire US) I would be concerned about a Bay Area territory if thatโ€™s your sales focus area. Iโ€™ve been to the Bay Area quite a bit on personal travel (for wine country visits and having to fly into SF). I was saddened during my last two brief visits. Homeless people everywhere.. urinating and defecating on the sidewalks.. seemingly drug dependent street dwellers.. and a ghost town of the once thriving city. To your point, people are moving out of California drovesโ€” especially the Bay Area. I would agree that the territory now looks to be desolate. If it were me, I would try to either expand your territory or look for a company that will provide you with a more robust business area.
detectivegibbles
Politicker
2
Sales Director
Never had to work San Fran (or california) in general. But from afar and various podcasts I listen to it really sounds like San Fran is turning into a shithole fast.

Again no ties or bias to west coast.

Best of luck!
Sunbunny31
Politicker
1
Sr Sales Executive ๐Ÿฐ
It's not as bad as the alarmists would have you believe. Not even in the top 75 most dangerous cities in the US (per the FBI).
detectivegibbles
Politicker
1
Sales Director
Yeah, I tend to believe that shit is never as bad as it seems and nor good as it seems.
Sunbunny31
Politicker
2
Sr Sales Executive ๐Ÿฐ
You have to always be cognizant of who's providing the opinion and what the bias is for sure. People always tend to remove the data that doesn't support whatever argument they're trying to make.

I mean, I went to Sioux Falls SD and found it charming. But it's troubled too. As is Dallas (not as charming as Sioux Falls by a long stretch). Love NOLA, but definitely wouldn't be out at night in quite a few parts of that city. I could go on, but you get the point. SF gets bashed a lot for a lot of reasons. Some fair, some not so fair.
detectivegibbles
Politicker
0
Sales Director
๐Ÿ’ฏ
FinanceEngineer
Politicker
2
Sr Director, sales and partnerships
SF has too many tax issues and not enough benefits to counter those. Those who can leave, have left. There is nothing new coming in. If the weather were worse, it would be Detroit.
oldcloser
Arsonist
2
๐Ÿ’€
Gives a new meaning to putting on your selling shoes. Manโ€ฆ
coletrain
Politicker
2
Account Executive
In the long term, SF and the Bay Area will be fine IMO. Sacramento seems to be going YIMBY, which will help housing costs to stabilize.
Justatitle
Big Shot
1
Account Executive
Liberal policies on homeless and all...
Kosta_Konfucius
Politicker
1
Sales Rep
Really hop SF turns around, however this is an issue with almost all major cities in a nice climate.
CRAG112
Valued Contributor
1
Account Executive
SF? You mean the city that made it legal for landlords to raise the rent 5% every single year?
1nbatopshotfan
Politicker
1
Sales
They have got to build build build. Iโ€™ve always been blown away watching a giants game and seeing the view from the blimp. Thereโ€™s only like 9 skyscrapers there (exaggeration obviously). But itโ€™s an incredible city and the NIMBYs need to walk into the ocean, in my humble opinion.

Thinking of SF makes me want a Pliny now.
Maximas
Tycoon
0
Senior Sales Executive
Could you let us know firstly what do you sell..?
ChumpChange
Politicker
0
Channel Manager
I know a handful of companies that terminated their leases. From what my team tells me... it's a ghost town.
countingmyinterest
Politicker
0
Account Executive
CRE value is going down too. Lots of empty office space...

SF better get its shit together otherwise it might become another Detroit or Cleveland.
Gyro25
Notorious Answer
0
Account Executive
So glad I left San Francisco..without some form of intervention, it's kinda screwed tbh since a majority of the tax base is leaving CA/SF
JustGonnaSendIt
Politicker
0
Burn Towns, Get Money
Hmm... I think there's a Tool song about what's happening out there.

something, something, learn to swim...
IYNFYL
Politicker
0
Enterprise SaaS AE
When they let people doing whatever they wanted to is when the town went to crap. I visited five years ago and then three years later, and it was a totally different city.
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