Unfortunately, I think this is the start of something bigger and our financial system just cracked.
What's the WR's take? I work in the banking sector but interested to hear everyone's opinions.
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SVB/Signature Bank blowing up
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I form my opinions off of headlines only, i am not to be trusted
I think that's the case with at least 99% of people. At least you actually own it
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Few threads with a lot of opinions on this already.
My opinion:
Bad for tech/startup/VC space.
Just another domino in the big messy puzzle that is inflation.
Ask anyone that doesn't work in tech/pay attention to markets if they even know about it and 99% of them will say they had no idea.
https://bravado.co/war-room/posts/svb-implosion-summed-up
https://bravado.co/war-room/posts/a-great-resource-to-learn-about-svb
My opinion:
Bad for tech/startup/VC space.
Just another domino in the big messy puzzle that is inflation.
Ask anyone that doesn't work in tech/pay attention to markets if they even know about it and 99% of them will say they had no idea.
https://bravado.co/war-room/posts/svb-implosion-summed-up
https://bravado.co/war-room/posts/a-great-resource-to-learn-about-svb
I disagree. Quite a few people outside of tech have been talking about it.
Also, this is just one of many headwinds banks face. Right now it’s deposit risk. There will be risk in C&I and commercial real estate for all banks in the next 12-24 months.
The issue I think banks are contending with is they are getting hit from all sides right now with increases in interest rates.
Bond values are going down, real estate values are declining, businesses are struggling and it’s more expensive to borrow now, so while 2008 you had residential real estate blow up, you are now seeing a much larger debt bubble pop.
Also, this is just one of many headwinds banks face. Right now it’s deposit risk. There will be risk in C&I and commercial real estate for all banks in the next 12-24 months.
The issue I think banks are contending with is they are getting hit from all sides right now with increases in interest rates.
Bond values are going down, real estate values are declining, businesses are struggling and it’s more expensive to borrow now, so while 2008 you had residential real estate blow up, you are now seeing a much larger debt bubble pop.
So what's your take on the next 6 months?
I think things will get worse before they get better but overall I don’t think anyone knows what will happen since the worlds debt load is so much larger than it was in 2008. I personally think we are getting to the end of a debt super cycle and there will be a lot of financial engineering that happens to avert catastrophe if it can be.
Cool. Another doomsday news pied Piper.
👀🍿
Planting a flag in the “ehhh it’ll mostly be fine” camp. This is the deal with trying to stop inflation with raising interest rates so aggressively. Should be a sign to take it a touch easy.
I do believe that you're more experienced than anybody here since you're working at the same impacted sector.
So I guess we need you to tell us why do you think thefinancial system has just cracked and to expect the worse to come!?
So I guess we need you to tell us why do you think thefinancial system has just cracked and to expect the worse to come!?
I’d watch the documentary on YouTube “Age of Easy Money”. It explains everything plainly. Even Jeff Gundlach came out yesterday and said even the 40-50 year vets of the financial industry have only dealt with rates declining and most don’t have experience in a rapidly increasing interest rate environment. This where we will have issues. There’s little to no experience managing the risks we are currently seeing.
Yeah, will give it a shot!
no i dont think this is the start of something bigger. i think it was mainly due to stupid choices the bank leadership made.
it doesnt seem like it was out of their control. if it was.....then i think it would be a "sign"
it doesnt seem like it was out of their control. if it was.....then i think it would be a "sign"
I see it as the sacrificial lambs. They are done and the government will back the banking system for another couple of years. Then we are back off to the races
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