salezkween

Enterprise Account Executive

What is the most accurate forecasting method?

Hello fellow salesfolx!

I had a discussion with our CRO today, and he asked, "What could the team be doing better?" This was moments after I had submitted my weekly forecast in Clari.

I told him we need forecasting guidance and rigor beyond best case and commit. I try my best to accurately represent the ACV and actual close date for early to mid-stage deals based on experience and deal progression, but I want to get better. (Most of my late-stage deals have a close plan in place, so I know when they are supposed to sign and close.)

I've been at companies where they take a weighted stage progression approach (Disco - 10% ACV, Case Building - 20% ACV) based on historical conversion rates.

So I come to ask you - wtf is the most accurate way to forecast?

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14 comments

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CuriousFox

WR Officer

🦊

Trick question. The accurate way is to play the game to keep the higher ups off your ass to where you push shit out another month. At least at my company that is. ☠

ADudeBeingAGuy

Politicker

Account Executive

Commit nothing, surprise everything. This is the way.

Kosta_Konfucius

Politicker

Sales Rep

Forecast as little as possible, but enough to keep leadership away

Pachacuti

Politicker

They call me Daddy, Sales Daddy

I agree.

nomdeguerre

Executive

Account executive

Never forecast anything there isn’t already in contracting. Everything else it’s really antibodies guess when if anything is going to happen.

Forecasting is so much a forecasting problem as it is a pipeline problem.

Every organization I have been in, forecasting craziness only picks up when the pipeline isn’t big enough.

TennisandSales

Politicker

Head Of Sales

yeah this is a great question. I have worked at a few companies that take the weighted forecast into account.
But when they do that, the only things they really care about is what you put in "commit". meaning this WILL CLOSE.

im very hesitant to put deals in that category.

BUT its also hard to forecast deals when they have a sales cycle of 12+ months.

I think what is equally important is having an enter and exit criteria for each stage. Then you can run reports over time to show "deals at this stage have closed at X %" and then can have more accurate forecast.

Pachacuti

Politicker

They call me Daddy, Sales Daddy

All of this centers around the question "how real is the deal?"

Assigning weight to an activity is just BS. We've all given demos (or other sales activity) for the sake of looking busy and showing we're productive, yet you know it will never be a sale. We've kept oppts around just to look like you're funnel is pull when in reality the deal died 3 months ago and you don't want to admit it to either yourself &/or your mngt.

But how do you measure the realness? I supposed if that was 100% known, you'd be doing it now. Its a matter of getting into every deal with your team and being aware. But that borders on micro-management and no one wants that.

jefe

Arsonist

🍁

Tea leaves

nomdeguerre

Executive

Account executive

Tarot cards 😂

UrAssIsSaaS

Arsonist

SaaS Eater

Lick your finger, stick it in the air and see which way the wind is blowing. Then submit that.

This is a million dollar question that varies a ton from one company to the next based on a wide variety of factors.

For us, we have really consistent conversion rates, and very consistent timelines to close because we are working entirely on IB leads. So we use the weighted stage progression method you outlined above. I know 5% of MQL will close in 34 days, 63% of SQLs will close within 14 etc. Its not perfect but it gets a within 10% every month I would say.

TheOverTaker

Politicker

Senior Account Executive

Forecasting sucks. Under promise over deliver

antiASKHOLE

Tycoon

Bravado's Resident Asshole

My company is always hounding us to forecast and then when it doesn't look the way they want it to, they get pissed. Like you get torn with being honest and then just trying to please them.

ChickenDinner

Politicker

Account Executive

Shadows and dust.

Gasty

Notable Contributor

War Room Community Manager

Excel?

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salezkween

What is the most accurate forecasting method?

14 comments

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